L'Italo-Americano

THURSDAY, JUNE 25, 2020 www.italoamericano.org 22 L'Italo-Americano A d m i t i t – i t ' s b e e n o n y o u r mind since that first viewing of " U n d e r t h e T u s c a n S u n " … o w n i n g your own magical villa in the lush Italian countryside sur- rounded by singing birds and plentiful wine. After all, who amongst us wouldn't relish "la bella vita" under our own clay tile roof somewhere in Italy? Dreams aside, many who are realistically considering home ownership in Italy are wondering: will the vast eco- n o m i c i m p l i c a t i o n s o f COVID-19 create a buyers' market in Italian real estate? That's a question that can only be partially answered at present, like so many other topics related to the pandem- ic and what awaits in the coming months. However, trends offer a little insight for what can be anticipated for t h o s e w i t h p r o s p e c t s f o r future homeownership in Italy. Real estate, along with most everything else, came to a grinding halt at the onset of 2020 as COVID-19 took off l i k e w i l d f i r e i n I t a l y . S i x months later, the economic effects are beginning to show themselves in rising unem- p l o y m e n t n u m b e r s , decreased tourism revenue (estimated to be up to a $3.6 billion loss), and substantial deficits in retail sales. One w o u l d t h i n k p i c k i n g u p a steal on the real estate mar- ket would go hand-in-hand with such a dire situation. Interestingly so, this is not the case when looking at a c u r r e n t s n a p s h o t o f t h e Italian real estate market…at least not yet. A recent analysis conduct- ed by Italian real estate clear- ing house Idealista shows t h a t h o u s i n g p r i c e s h a v e actually risen by an average of 0.3 percent across Italy as o f A p r i l . T h i s , o f c o u r s e , varies by region. Milan, a m a j o r b u s i n e s s h u b , h a s shown a decrease of 0.8 per- cent as of May. However, other large city markets such as Turin and Bologna are showing continued rises. Another market showing i n c r e a s e d c o s t s i n c l u d e s homes in the Italian country- s i d e . R e c e n t t r e n d s s h o w younger couples and families are seeking to migrate from the big cities in search of their own piece of paradise under a Tuscan (or any other region) sun. A study conduct- ed by Ville & Casali maga- zine (May 2020) noted a 20 percent increase in inquiries and searches for rural prop- erties. After enduring strict quarantine measures due to COVID-19, it appears that many are rethinking their way of living, opting instead for space, nature, and a rural way of life according to the magazine's editor, Giovanni Morelli. Coupled with the a b i l i t y f o r m a n y t o w o r k remotely, as well as the avail- ability of old properties with- in small villages and in the countryside, market forecast- e r s h a v e g o o d r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e t h i s s e c t o r w i l l remain much more sustain- able than within urban areas. And what about those one- euro homes? The trend made h e a d l i n e s l o n g b e f o r e COVID-19 rewrote our world, and the tempting offers are still coming. Most recently, the hook from these small hamlets rests upon the lau- r e l s o f " v e r y f e w c a s e s o f C O V I D " t o " C O V I D - f r e e " such as the recent promotion by the Calabrian village of Cinquefrondi. Like most other deals of this nature, C i n q u e f r o n d i m a y o r M i c h e l e C o n i a ' s "Operation Beauty" comes with a few caveats such as an upfront insurance fee (nonre- fundable) and a hefty fine if renovation is not completed within three years. But who knows… with the renewed desire for rural life combined with low(er) cost options, Italy's small villages could b e c o m e t h e r e a l e s t a t e Phoenix rising from the ashes of Italy's post-COVID world. This upward tick on the graph might be, however, a momentary bubble destined to burst. From 2000 to 2008, Italy saw a vibrant 85% (53% a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t i o n ) increase in housing prices. Since then, houses prices have shown a steady down- ward drift due to factors such as the Euro crisis, stiff prop- erty tax additions, and trade tensions. With a predicted additional shrinkage of any- where from 3 to 7 percent this year for the Italian econ- omy, the immediate forecast is somewhat bleak. All things considered, is 2020 the time to get serious about acquiring a permanent address in Italy? It's a highly personal decision, of course, b u t e x p e r t s s u c h a s W i m Peeters, proprietor of Italian House Hunters, suggest t h a t t h e t i m e i s r i g h t . C o u p l i n g t h e l o n g - t e r m decline in housing prices with the pervasive nervous- ness of banks and lending institutions desperate to min- imize loss from defaulted mortgages, making an advan- tageous deal is a real possibil- ity. Mortgage interest rate trends for non-Italian resi- dents are at historic lows, but the wading through moun- tains of paperwork is pre- d i c t a b l y s t i l l p r e s e n t . H o w e v e r , m a n y a g e n c i e s exist to help the faint of heart muddle through. I spent a little time day- dreaming my way through listings found throughout Italy on Idealista. Property exists for just about any bud- get, but it was noteworthy that at present, fire sales s e e m t o b e f e w a n d f a r between. That told, it's still not a bad way to while away a n a f t e r n o o n a n d k e e p a pulse on the daily market. The never-to-be-forgotten year of 2020 has only half played out. Many unknowns will continue to unfold as the m o n t h s p r o g r e s s , a s t h e world makes its way through the COVID pandemic. To buy now…or wait for another day to score that long-dreamed of Italian flat, home, or villa… remains to be seen. Only the i n d i v i d u a l c a n m a k e t h a t f i n a l d e c i s i o n . A l l t o l d , though, enough stars may j u s t a l i g n t o t i p a s o l i d "maybe" over to that longed for "yes" to hanging your name on a beautiful Italian door. PAULA REYNOLDS Time to buy that Italian dream home…or not? LIFE PEOPLE PLACES HERITAGE A home in a quaint countryside Italian village: could it be the right time to turn that dream into reality? According to experts, yes (Photo: Dreamstime)

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